According to the boxing odds at MyBookie.ag on May 15, the opening line for the Pacquiao vs. Thurman fight had Thurman as a -135 favorite (wager $135 to win $100). Pacquiao’s opening line was +115 (wager $100 to win $115). In boxing betting terms, these are extremely close odds. For reference, On June 1, Anthony Joshua was a -2200 favorite to defeat Andy Ruiz who was a +1250 underdog. As of today, the odds have Pacquiao as the favorite at -130 and Thurman at +100.

In order to understand why the odds have shifted and why Pacquiao is now the odds on favorite, you have to understand how the lines are set and why they move.

HE WHO CONTROLS THE NARRATIVE

Betting on sports is unlike anything that would employ traditional logic. Meaning, with the understanding that 98 percent of the people that bet on sports lose and that the best professional sports bettors in the world rarely surpass the 54 percent winning percentage necessary to make a profit, what makes the average Joe think he could do any better? Fans don’t use logic when betting. Especially sports where they’re emotionally vested. Often times they bet with their heart and not their head. The oddsmakers know this all too well. Right now, I feel that the sharps (professional sports bettors) are grateful for Pacquiao’s army of fans and supporters who can’t process the concept of Pacquiao losing.

The bookmakers have one goal and that’s to take as little of a risk position as possible, meaning, their only goal is to have the same amount of money placed on each fighter while their profit is in the juice (commission) they charge the sports bettor for using their platform to place the bet. Once the opening line is set, the oddsmakers wait and see where the money is going and then adjust accordingly. In this case, money has consistently been coming in on Pacquiao at the rate of 61.1 percent to 38.9 percent for Thurman since the opening line. The sportsbooks then adjust the line to both inspire perceived value and to attract money on the other side. Hence, limiting their risk.

THE FACTS

Between June 2 and July 2 there were 17,100 tweets that mentioned the Twitter handle @MannyPacquiao compared to 4,592 tweets mentioning @keithfthurmanjr, the Twitter handle for Thurman.

The top performing piece of social media content around Manny Pacquiao between June 2 and July 2 was a two hour Facebook Live Video from June 20 where he was singing and responding to fan comments that generated 303 thousand responses.

As of July 3 Pacquiao has five million followers on Instagram, compared to Thurman having 298 thousand Instagram followers. On Facebook, 12,147,731 people have liked the official page for Pacquiao compared to Thurmanreceiving 130,564 likes on his official Facebook page.

Pacquiao being embraced on social media isn’t necessarily driven by him winning in the ring. For instance, between July 2, 2017 and July 1, 2018; meaning the year around his last loss, his top performing content on Facebook was a video captioned ”This is why I still fight” where he’s handing out money to children that generated 338,367 responses. His second best performing Facebook post was an image where he congratulated Jeff Horn for beating him which generated  315,070 responses.

In the past year, meaning between July 3, 2018 to July 2, 2019, the top performing piece of Pacquiao content on Facebook was a video that generated 611 thousand responses where he was teaching his son Emmanuel Pacquiao Jr. how to box.

In contrast, while the audience doesn’t know that much about Thurman, they are actively trying to learn more. Between June 28 and July 4, there were 28 thousand page views around the Keith Thurman Jr. Wikipedia page, compared to 45.9 thousand page views around the Manny Pacquiao Wikipedia page. The 61 percent  traffic around Thurman’s Wikipedia page indicates that the public is curious about figuring out just how big a threat Thurman is for Pacquiao.

Tracy David, the Chief Marketing Officer for social analytics platform ListenFirst said, “Manny Pacquiao has 90.7 times more Facebook followers, 30.8 times more Twitter followers, and 16.8 time more Instagram followers than Keith Thurman. Additionally when you look at which of his posts best perform, it’s content that deals with his faith, values, and family. In a context where Pacquiao is so beloved as a person and has such a large social media footprint, it’s easy to see how out of the ring factors could influence public perception about the fight outcome.”

THERE ARE NO COINCIDENCES

If you look at the chart above that shows the line history and movements, it’s no coincidence as to when and why the odds shifted in Pacquiao’s favor. Aside from the metrics I’ve already expressed and there being a crawl toward Pacquiao becoming the favorite, on June 25, Pacquiao posted the following sweepstakes on his Twitter in addition to the following Facebook video of him training.

With just two weeks until the fight, Pacquiao’s voice has been drowning out Thurman’s voice with training videos, lifestyle videos, images and a carefree attitude of positivity and confidence that is inspiring the betting public to try to cash in on one more big win for Pacquiao. The disparity in visibility has lead many to feel that Pacquiao is going to win this fight. In a fight that is as close as this one might be, Pacquiao’s megaphone via social media has skewed the rate in which bets have now been coming in versus when the original line was set. Thurman has been doing his fair share of self promoting and participating in media, but he simply doesn’t have the fan base like Pacquiao to help lift his profile.

There is nothing else that has transpired since the opening line was set that should make me or anyone else think that all of a sudden Pacquiao became the favorite to win in a complete flip flop of the odds. My take is simple. The sharps are going to come in with late money on Thurman that will eventually tighten up these odds to even money or close to it.

Article courtesy of Peter Kahn & Forbes